In the 60's, disruption to the car industry was flying cars and cars with a big glassbubble instead of a conventional roof. But nothing really disrupted the car industry so far. We are still driving our car with a steering wheel in the hands and it is not flying....
But today, we are really at the beginning of a big disruption entering the car industry. We are not speaking of the robots used to manufacture cars but rather the way we will drive cars in the next five to ten years and how the car industry is searching its path using different sources of energy.
Car companies are also giving plenty of gas to go digital. Cars are becoming computers on wheels, the motor is still important but less and less. Just have a closer look at the advertising campaigns of large car manufactures. They speak of Autonomous cars, Connected cars, Clean cars (how can a car be clean!) and even Intelligent cars. They tend to tell us that a car has a higher IQ than the vast majority of the drivers. And even argue that connected cars will make less accidents than a conventional car driven by a human being. One could argue, how is it possible as no relevant statistics are available yet. But the trend is here to last. It is more than just a marketing trick to push the option list further up and expand the profit per car sold. This has also to do with the new drivers' generation which was born "digital".
Cars has been something we own, something we drive, a status symbol per excellence, something powered by a combustion engine. This will surely be different in the future. The Y and Z generations don't necessarily want to own, this is the lease and use instantly generation. They just want the use of things, the flexibility above all is key. Yes, the flexibility to change, to adapt, to move, to travel. They are probably more CO2 conscious, take public transportation if available. In one word, they search mobility options. When living in cities, owning a car is very often the bad option, too many downsides as parking, traffic jams. Cities will apply fees -toll to drive in the city (eg. Congestion charge in London). This generation use Uber, Blablacar just to mention a few. They will love to activate an App for an autonomous car coming in seven minutes at the entrance of the sushi-restaurant and just pay as they use. No problem with servicing, maintenance, refuelling, insurances, depreciation....and when driving (sorry, be driven) they can send the two urgent e-mails plus book the next vacation on line. They want to be always connected and the internet of things should not leave cars mute.
Tomorrow, we will have the Google, Apple & Co entering the car industry. They are not necessarily going to manufacture a car, they could do as Ikea: stick to the design, marketing, furnish the software and sell mobility options. Mobility is going progressively to supplement the notion of pure driving. It will be the key differentiator. Even Governments, cities will have to think differently in terms of mobility packages and taxation. We will have to move away from a system linked to the power of an engine and CO2 emissions, since when does an electric car producing zero CO2, we have to build it, produce and store electricity, recycle the batteries (some electric car have 800 kilos of batteries under the seats). It will be the generation of pay as you drive or use.
In this disruptive new auto world, one of the challenges could be to integrate autonomous, semi- autonomous and non-autonomous cars in the traffic at the same time and on the same roads. Cities in a very near future will probably ban conventional combustion engines. But the wish is to have less cars per inhabitant in the urban zones, the traffic will then diminish and solutions like carpooling will develop at a fast speed.
Challenges are here today and with this disruption, we will have the emergence of new competitors, some car manufactures will either disappear, merge, position themself differently. The key points are going to be Mobility and the appropriate Branding.
In the meantime and as long as it is still possible, I enjoy driving, but I must confess, less and less, the intrusive legislation, inappropriate speed limits, too many electronic gadgets...make me regret the time where you only had to turn the key and enjoy driving. This is eventually one of the reasons why I love driving my TVR with a naturally aspired V6 producing an insane sound. This is the real world...but for how long? Maybe at the end, men and women still prefer to drive rather than to be driven...who knows!
Shelby Mac Carb
